Most people think about putting money away for retirement as “savings.” However, these accounts are really a form of investing today’s income in the hopes that it grows and provides a nice nest egg for the future. As with any investment, retirement accounts come with a certain amount of risk.
The amount of risk with which someone is comfortable depends on the person, as well as the situation. With retirement, individuals often try to reduce risk as they approach their sixties to protect the money that they have saved since there is less time for rebound.
Managing risk when it comes to retirement savings starts with understanding what risks exist. This is particularly true in light of the fact that more investment decisions are falling to the individual than ever before. Some of the key risks involved with retirement savings include:
Perhaps the most obvious (but still frequently overlooked) risk is inflation. Because of high inflation rates, the money that is put aside now will simply not be worth as much in terms of purchasing power in the future.
Since 1981, the inflation rate has been about 2.8 percent annually. That means people need to earn a return on investments of 2.8 percent just to break even when it comes to inflation.
Furthermore, inflation tends to be higher for retirees largely because of healthcare costs, which have actually grown at a rate that outpaces general inflation. Individuals should always think about inflation in terms of their low-risk investments, which may not even break even if they have a very low rate of return.
Sequence of Returns
The phrase “sequence of returns” refers to the state of the market during the time withdrawals are made. When retirees need to withdrawal from an investment account during a bear market, they will deplete their savings far more quickly than in a bull market.
This is exacerbated by the fact that depleting one’s savings limits the amount of money left to generate returns going forward. While most people focus on the average rate of return before retirement, afterward it is quintessential to consider the sequence of returns. Perhaps this consideration becomes most important when thinking about when to retire.
Ideally, individuals retire during positive market performance. This minimizes the need of liquidating investments to generate an income. When the liquidation happens, individuals may find themselves running out of money before predicted.
While the subject of longevity may seem morbid, it is a critically important consideration for people facing retirement. When it comes to retirement risk, longevity refers to how long individuals will actually live. Funding a retirement that lasts 20 years is significantly less challenging than making the same money last for 30 years.
While no one can predict exactly how long they will live, this consideration does have an impact on how fast individuals spend money once they have retired. Even individuals with a very solid foundation will have trouble generating enough income for 30 years. Yet people today are living longer than ever before, with many individuals living until their late nineties.
Current interest rates are considered fairly low. Retirees should recognize this fact because it means that they can generate only limited returns with “safe” investments, such as Treasury notes. While these notes once generated a return of more than 5 percent, or even 7 percent in the early 1990s, they now have a return of about 2 percent, which does not even cover inflation. As a result, individuals may have to save more than they initially thought when they started saving a few decades ago.
Another strategy is to move these investments into more aggressive accounts with the potential for greater yields, but this comes with the risk of losing considerably. While rates could increase, it leaves many people just starting to save relying on riskier options for the time being.
Healthcare costs continue to increase rapidly. People who do not plan for these expenses may find themselves going bankrupt when something happens. Before retirement, individuals need to think critically about their needs and prepare as best as they can. Looking at current health and genetics can say a lot about likely needs in the future. This will help direct people toward the best options for them.
Individuals also need to consider the level of care that they want. Private nursing homes cost much more than other options. To offset health costs, individuals can purchase long-term care insurance or supplemental policies for Medicare. However, it may also be prudent to save more than initially thought necessary for healthcare expenses, just in case.
Laws can change quickly, creating completely new tax situations. These risks are hard to predict, but they could really take a bit out of retirement plans. For example, taxes could skyrocket, which leaves individuals with traditional retirement accounts with much less money than they thought when they start to withdrawal funds.
On the other hand, people who prepare for this issue by investing primarily in Roth accounts may kick themselves if taxes are much lower when they start making withdrawals than they currently are. Many people try to mitigate this risk by investing in both traditional and Roth accounts so that they can be more strategic in how they withdraw down the road.